8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Feb 2004  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 31/03/2004   
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February Key Figures

Feb 04
Jan 04 to Feb 04
$m
% change
Turnover at current prices
Trend estimates
15,809.2
0.3
Seasonally adjusted estimates
15,761.2
0.1

Graph - Monthly turnover, Trend estimates—% change


February Key Points


TREND ESTIMATES
  • The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.3% in February 2004 compared with January 2004. This follows increases of 0.4% in January 2004 and 0.5% in December 2003.
  • The trend estimate increased in all states and territories except New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory. The largest increase was in Victoria.
  • Over the three months to February 2004 the trend estimate rose by $178m. Food retailing (+$112m), Hospitality and Services (+$32m), Household good retailing (+$18m) and Clothing and soft good retailing (+$17m) showed the largest increases.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.1% in February 2004 compared with January 2004. This follows a revised increase of 0.6% in January 2004 and a revised decrease of 0.7% in December 2003.
  • The estimate of total turnover for February 2004 was 8.3% higher than February 2003.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms, Australian turnover fell by 9.0% in February 2004 compared with January 2004. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) fell by 11.3%, while 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) fell by 6.0%.
  • Australian turnover increased by 11.6% in February 2004 compared with February 2003. February 2004 had an extra day. Chains and other large retailers increased by 9.9%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 13.8%.


Notes

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

An appendix 'Contribution of Gambling to Retail Estimates' has been included in this issue with data updated to December quarter 2003.



LEAP YEAR

The extra day in February 2004 due to the leap year is taken account of in the seasonal adjustment process, but should be borne in mind when analysing the original estimate.



SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for February 2004 contained in this publication are:

Data Series
Estimate
Standard error
Level of retail turnover ($m)
14,334.4
137.4
Change from preceding month ($m)
-1,417.4
56.6
% change from preceding month (%)
-9.0
0.3

Estimates for sampled businesses in the first month of each quarter can be influenced by the quarterly rotation of sampled businesses. This rotation is done to spread the reporting load across retailers and to ensure the sample remains representative of the population. At times, the businesses rotated into the sample can perform differently from the businesses they replace or those already in the sample. The potential impact of the quarterly rotation is reflected in the sampling errors for the relevant months.


For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 30-34.



Inquiries

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.



Summary Commentary


INDUSTRY TRENDS


MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

After 12 months of moderate to strong growth, the trend growth was weak in February 2004. Food retailing continued its moderate trend growth. Clothing and soft good retailing has had moderate trend growth for the last three months, while all other industries had weak trend growth, no growth or were in decline in February 2004.

Graph: industry graphs_total retail


FOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate trend growth for the last 13 months. New South Wales has had moderate trend growth for the last nine months. Victoria had strong trend growth in January and February 2004, while Queensland has had moderate trend growth in the last two months after nine months of strong growth. Tasmania has had four months of weak or moderate trend growth and Western Australia has been flat for three months.

Graph: industry graphs_food retailing


DEPARTMENT STORES

The rate of trend growth increased from October 2003 to January 2004, but the trend was flat in February 2004. Victoria, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory were in decline in February and New South Wales was flat after four months of moderate trend growth.

Graph: industry graphs_department stores


CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate to strong trend growth over the last eight months, but the rate of growth has been slowing since October 2003. New South Wales and South Australia had moderate trend growth in February 2004 after five months of strong growth, while Victoria had strong growth over the last five months. Queensland and the Australian Capital Territory have been flat or in decline in the last four months.

Graph: industry graphs_clothing & soft good ret


HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

The trend growth rate has been slowing since June 2003 with weak trend growth in the last four months. South Australia has had strong growth over the last six months and Victoria in the last two months. All other states and territories were flat or in decline in February 2004.

Graph: industry graphs_household good retailing


RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

The trend growth rate has been slowing from strong trend growth in August 2003 to being in decline in February 2004. South Australia and Western Australia have had strong trend growth in the last six and nine months respectively. Victoria had moderate trend growth in February 2004. The Northern Territory has had no growth for two months and all other states have been in decline for between two and five months.

Graph: industry graphs_recreational good retailing


OTHER RETAILING

Trend growth was strong for the 10 months to October 2003, but has been in decline over the last three months. Western Australia has had strong growth over the last four months and the Australian Capital Territory over the last six months. New South Wales and Queensland have been in decline for the last four months and Victoria and South Australia have been in decline in the last two months.

Graph: industry graphs_other retaling


TOTAL RETAIL (excluding Hospitality and Services)

The rate of trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has been the same or below that of Total industries (including Hospitality and services) for the last seven months.

Graph: industry graphs_total retail (excl hos)


HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

After six months of strong trend growth, this industry has had weak to moderate growth in the last three months. After 12 months of strong growth, Queensland had moderate trend growth in February 2004. Victoria had moderate trend growth in February after eight months of strong growth. Western Australia also had moderate trend growth in February 2004 and all other states and territories were flat or in decline.

Graph: industry graphs_hospitality & services



STATE TRENDS


MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

The trend was in decline in February after four months of weak to moderate growth. Food retailing has had moderate trend growth for the last nine months, and Clothing and soft good retailing had moderate growth in February after five months of strong growth. Department stores was flat and all other industries were in decline in February 2004.

Graph - State Trends, Monthly Seasonally Adjusted and Trend Estimates, New South Wales


VICTORIA

Trend growth has moderated in the last two months after six months of strong growth. The rate of trend growth for Food retailing and Household good retailing has increased in recent months. The rate of growth has slowed in all other industries, particularly Hospitality and services and Other retailing.

Graph - State Trends, Monthly Seasonally Adjusted and Trend Estimates, Victoria


QUEENSLAND

After moderate to strong trend growth for 12 months, there was weak trend growth in February 2004. Food retailing had moderate trend growth in the last two months after nine months of strong growth. Hospitality and services had moderate growth in February 2004 after 12 months of strong growth. Clothing and soft good retailing, Household good retailing and Other retailing have been in decline over the last four months.

Graph - State Trends, Monthly Seasonally Adjusted and Trend Estimates, Queensland


SOUTH AUSTRALIA

The trend has shown moderate growth in the last three months. Clothing and soft good retailing, Household good retailing and Recreational good retailing have shown strong growth over the last six months. Food retailing and Department stores have had moderate trend growth in the last four months. The trend growth rate for Hospitality and services has been falling since October 2003 and was in decline in February 2004.

Graph - State Trends, Monthly Seasonally Adjusted and Trend Estimates, South Australia


WESTERN AUSTRALIA

For the last four months there has been weak trend growth. The trend growth for Household good retailing had been strong since October 2002, although the rate of growth has been slowing since July 2003 and was in decline for the last two months. Recreational good retailing has had strong growth for the last nine months. Department stores has been in decline for six months. Food retailing has been flat for three months.

Graph - State Trends, Monthly Seasonally Adjusted and Trend Estimates, Western Australia


TASMANIA

The trend growth has been weak to moderate for the last four months after seven months of strong growth. Food retailing has had weak to moderate growth in the last four months. Clothing and soft good retailing has had strong growth in the last two months. Hospitality and services has been in decline for five months.

Graph - State Trends, Monthly Seasonally Adjusted and Trend Estimates, Tasmania